Bulletin "Veterinary biotechnology"

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Cite: Bezymennyi M., & Tarasov O. (2024). Prostorovyi rozpodil ta aktyvnist statsionarno neblahopoluchnykh za sybirkoiu punktiv v Ukraini [Spatial distribution and activity of anthrax reported localities in Ukraine]. Veterynarna biotekhnolohiia – Veterinary biotechnology, 44, 9-28. https://doi.org/10.31073/vet_biotech44-01 [in Ukrainian]. 

 

BEZYMENNYI M., e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., TARASOV O., e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Institute of Veterinary Medicine of the NAAS

 

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND ACTIVITY OF ANTHRAX REPORTED LOCALITIES IN UKRAINE

   Introduction. In recent two decades, there have been sporadic cases of anthrax in Ukraine, but more than 10000 anthrax reported localities registered in the past continue to pose a constant risk of new outbreaks. Identifying patterns in the spatial distribution and activity of anthrax reported localities can enhance our understanding of the pathogen’s ecology and improve preventive measures.

   The goal of the work. To describe the spatial distribution and activity of anthrax reported localities in Ukraine from 1920 to 2023.

   Materials and methods. In this article, we mapped and analyzed the spatial distribution of 8928 anthrax reported localities between 1920 and 2023. Spatial analysis and mapping were performed in ESRI ArcGIS 10.4 and QGIS 3.34.

   We used Average Nearest Neighbor Index to identify spatial pattern of anthrax reported localities and to compare it with the pattern of all populated locations in Ukraine.

   We used choropleth maps with a Jenks classification scheme to display both the absolute number of anthrax reported localities at the regional level and the percentage of anthrax-affected localities relative to the total number of populated locations in each region.

   Both Unweighted Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and KDE weighted by the total number of outbreaks per site were utilized to identify anthrax hotspots.

   We calculated descriptive statistics on the number of outbreaks, activity intervals, and periods between recurring outbreaks in anthrax reported localities.

   The Gi* statistic was used to identify clusters of anthrax-affected localities with the highest number of outbreaks and longest activity intervals.

   Results of research and discussion. The ANNI method has determined that anthrax reported localities are statistically significantly dispersed across the territory of Ukraine, which somewhat mirrors the distribution of all settlements in the country.

   At the regional level, the minimum number of anthrax reported localities is 117, found in Volyn region; the maximum is 763, found in Vinnytsia region; and the average for all regions is 357. The minimum percentage of anthrax reported localities relative to the total number of populated locations is 10.6%, found in Volyn region; the maximum is 49.8%, found in Vinnytsia region; and the average is 29.3%.

   The KDE method has identified areas with the highest density of anthrax reported localities in Ukraine. These areas mostly stretched across the country from Lviv region in the west to Sumy region in the east, covering most of the broadleaf forest and forest-steppe zones. The lowest density of anthrax reported localities is observed in the northern parts of Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and Kyiv regions.

   The median activity interval is 2 years, with the maximum reaching 81 years.There are 422 anthrax reported localities with the activity interval of 35 years or more. These localities are present in all regions of Ukraine.

   The interval between repeated outbreaks in the same location can extend up to 65 years.Outbreaks in the last decade occurred in anthrax reported localities with intervals ranging from 25 to 65 years from the previous ones, averaging 53 years.

   The median number of outbreaks in anthrax reported localities is 2, with a minimum of 1 outbreak and a maximum of 72.

   Gi* statistics identified hot clusters of anthrax reported localities based on the number of outbreaks in 17 regions and on activity intervals in 18 out of 25 regions of Ukraine. In general, clusters identified by both parameters are located in the same places.

   Conclusions and prospects for further research. Approximately one-third of populated localities in Ukraine have reported anthrax cases previously. They are statistically dispersed throughout Ukraine, mirroring the spatial distribution of all populated localities in the country. However, there is local variation not only in their distribution but also in the number of outbreaks and activity intervals. Certain regions exhibit clusters of anthrax reported localities with high numbers of outbreaks and long activity intervals. Further research is needed to understand the reasons for such clustering and the conditions favoring long-term activity.

   The presence of numerous anthrax reported localities in all regions of Ukraine, with activity interval of 35 years or more, suggests that favorable conditions for anthrax persistence may exist almost everywhere in Ukraine.

   The long intervals between outbreaks, which can reach 65 years, highlight the persistent threat of anthrax.

   The long intervals between recurrent outbreaks, which can be 65 years, emphasize the importance of ongoing preventive measures.

   The detection of new anthrax reported localities in recent years may indicate data deficiencies and the possible presence of unknown soil anthrax foci.

Keywords: anthrax, spatial analysis, mapping, anthrax-affected localities.

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