Citation: Skrypnyk V. (2026) risk assessment of anthrax outbreaks in Ukraine under conditions of environmental and military impact. VeterinaryBiotechnology, 48, 176-193. https://doi.org/10.31073/vet_biotech48-13
SKRYPNYK V. Doc. Sci. (Vet. Med.), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4282-6638
The institute of Veterinary Medicine NAAS
RISK ASSESSMENT OF ANTHRAX OUTBREAKS IN UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND MILITARY IMPACT
Introduction. Anthrax remains a persistent zoonotic disease with long-term environmental reservoirs, posing a continuous threat to animal and human health. In Ukraine, more than 13,000 historically affected settlements have been registered, forming stable soil foci of infection. The persistence of Bacillus anthracis spores in soil, combined with ecological disturbances such as flooding, erosion, and land disruption, creates conditions for reactivation of latent outbreaks. In the context of ongoing military conflict, additional risk factors have emerged, including destruction of infrastructure, reduced veterinary control, and large-scale environmental disturbances.
The goal of the work. To assess the risks of anthrax outbreaks in Ukraine using an integrated approach combining epizootological analysis, spatial-temporal modeling, and semi-quantitative risk assessment, and to model potential outbreak scenarios under conditions of military impact.
Materials and methods. The study was based on data from stationary anthrax-affected points collected between 1990 and 2023. Risk assessment followed FAO/OIE guidelines using a semi-quantitative approach (probability × severity). Additional factors such as environmental disturbances, hydrological changes, and reduced veterinary surveillance were integrated into a unified risk index (1–5). Scenario modeling (S1–S3) was applied to assess the impact of different levels of intervention.
Results of research and discussion. The results demonstrated that anthrax risks in Ukraine are spatially heterogeneous and strongly influenced by both historical and contemporary factors. The highest risk levels (4.5–4.8) were identified in southern and eastern regions, particularly Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Cherkasy, due to a combination of high density of historical foci, environmental disruption, and limited control measures. Scenario modeling showed that in the absence of intervention, risks escalate to widespread outbreaks, while systematic control measures significantly reduce outbreak probability.
Conclusions and prospects for further research. The study confirms that anthrax outbreak risks in Ukraine are determined by a combination of long-term environmental persistence and current anthropogenic factors. The proposed integrated approach allows identification of priority monitoring areas and supports decision-making in veterinary surveillance. Despite limitations related to data availability and semi-quantitative assessment, the model provides a reliable framework for risk screening. Future research should focus on validation of the model using outbreak data and integration of molecular diagnostics to confirm environmental contamination in high-risk zones.
Keywords: anthrax, Bacillus anthracis, risk assessment, spatial analysis, environmental factors, spores
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